London Covid: The commuter towns near London that are surging towards a local lockdown – MyLondon



Apprehension is building across England as to what restrictions will be placed on different areas of the country when Prime Minister Boris Johnson delivers his latest speech.

The PM is set to announce new restrictions on Monday, October 12, in a bid to slow the spread of infection and experts have been weighing in with their predictions on what’s going to happen.

It is widely accepted that England will adopt a three tier scale or traffic light system to communicate with the public the severity of Covid-19 in different areas and also to set out the specific rules for each location.

It is thought that the levels will be decided by how many individuals are infected per 100,000 people.

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Those with the highest levels will be placed in tier three, with restrictions possibly including the closing of pubs and restaurants, and the removal of rule of six.

Level two will be similar to current local lockdowns such households banned from mixing and level one will be built around the rule of six which is the status quo.

How it is decided which areas go into which bracket is the sticking point for the Government, as any locations placed in tier three will require furlough support mechanisms for workers and could potentially have devastating impact on local businesses.

According to The Sun, the threshold for the three tiers will be:

Tier 3 (high risk) – Areas with more than 50 new cases per 100,000 people
Tier 2 (medium risk) – Areas with 20-50 new cases per 100,000 people
Tier 1 (low risk) – Areas with less than 20 new cases per 100,000 people

If 50 new cases per 100,000 people is used as the marker for tier three then huge swathes of the country would be placed in the highest risk lockdown scenario.

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Sutton would be the only borough in London that would be below this threshold.

Turning to outside the capital, large numbers of commuter towns would actually be seen as high risk.

Here are the commuter towns near London that are surging towards a local lockdown, with only those above 60 new cases per 100,000 being listed:

(The list has been calculated by the PA news agency and is based on Public Health England data published on Friday October 9 on the Government’s coronavirus dashboard.

From left to right, it reads: name of local authority; rate of new cases in the seven days to October 6; number (in brackets) of new cases recorded in the seven days to October 6; rate of new cases in the seven days to September 29; number (in brackets) of new cases recorded in the seven days to September 29.)

Oxford 118.7 (181), 86.6 (132)
Slough 88.9 (133), 86.3 (129)
Woking 87.3 (88), 35.7 (36)
Bedford 81.9 (142), 50.2 (87)
Watford 74.6 (72), 49.7 (48)
Guildford 72.5 (108), 32.2 (48)
Luton 71.8 (153), 61.0 (130)
Surrey Heath 71.7 (64), 32.5 (29)
Epping Forest 71.4 (94), 58.5 (77)
Sevenoaks 71.2 (86), 23.2 (28)
Chiltern 70.9 (68), 41.7 (40)
Brighton and Hove 69.4 (202), 30.6 (89)
Runnymede 68.2 (61), 34.7 (31)
South Bucks 67.1 (47), 60.0 (42)
South Cambridgeshire 63.5 (101), 28.9 (46)
Epsom and Ewell 62.0 (50), 28.5 (23)
Basildon 60.9 (114), 42.7 (80)
Epsom and Ewell 62.0 (50), 28.5 (23)

Tipping point

England’s deputy chief medical officer Professor Jonathan Van-Tam said the country is at a tipping point similar to the first wave of coronavirus, but can prevent history repeating itself.

He said the best way to keep transmission low and stop the NHS being overwhelmed was for people to follow self-isolation guidance, wash their hands, wear face coverings and social distance.

He added: “Earlier in the year, we were fighting a semi-invisible disease, about which we had little knowledge, and it seeded in the community at great speed.

“Now we know where it is and how to tackle it – let’s grasp this opportunity and prevent history from repeating itself.”